Krispy Kreme’s stock price dropped about 26% today for reasons not yet clear to, well, anyone it seems. Over in the comments section on Fark I was struck by one of the first comments made by Rottenassdan:

“Nothing wrong with the donuts, but I haven’t been to a Krispy Kreme since they started opening stores across the street from every McD’s, Starbucks, and Taco Bell. They were a special treat when I had to drive 20 miles to get them.”

I feel the same way. There was something special about driving from Menlo Park all the way up to friggin’ Union City for a box of hot donuts. Then they opened one in Mountain View. Then down the street. I don’t think I’ve had a Krispy Kreme in something like a year, and not just because of my attampts at a lower-carb lifestyle. They’re just not special anymore.

Contrast that with my dicscovery a while back that there was a Winchell’s – A friggin’ WINCHELL’S! – in Walnut Creek. When I was growing up, the closest and best donut shop we had was a Winchell’s in Yorba Linda. Every single special early morning – when we moved someone, before we left for a camping trip, when we had to do anything unusual and needed a quick breakfast – Winchell’s was how we started our day. They came in this nifty box that had one of those tops that folds down so the edges can get caught in holes cut in the side flaps to create a handle in the middle like a long, white, lineart donut festooned Happy Meal. They had the best donut holes EVAR. Most of the Winchell’s, including the one from my childhood, were converted into other, lesser fast food pushers, so to see one so close to home excited me, much to my wife’s bewilderment.

“Their donuts suck,” she said matter of factly.

“No, YOU suck”, I replied just before sticking out my tongue.

Due to carb consciousness, I kept saying to myself that I’d visit when I deserved it. Well, I apparently will never deserve it as it’s now gone, replaced by “Happy Donuts” or some crap.

So, what’s the lesson learned here? When Krispy Kreme first hit the west coast, the lines of homesick easterners, combined with their confused yet sugar-happy western friends, went around the block as folks rushed to get some sweet hot donut action that reminded them of a bygone childhood. Seeing such great success, KK decided to spread the love and become the Starbucks of donuts. In doing so, however, they ignored one big fact – that, while the dubious healthy benefits of a good cup of joe will continue to be wildly debated by overcaffeinated addicted fanatics for years to come, just about everyone agrees that donuts make you fat, which make you unhealthy, which contributes to the obesity epidemic in America and, thus, should really be treated as a once-in-a-while special treat rather than a morning ritual. I think many can justify a long drive and long wait for an occassional treat (the warm plain glazed ones are like edible sin). When they’re on every street corner, however, it’s less a treat and more a convenience. And, while we can attempt to placate ourselves that places such as McDonald’s provide something akin to a complete meal and places like Starbucks provide an expensive, addicting substance that, nonetheless, has not been difinitvely proven unhealthy, donuts are really just a fun food that we know we shouldn;t eat more than once in a while. That’s a pretty shaky foundation to build a business plan around, especially one that requires extensive expansion.

Oh, so much to say about Jon Stewart’s appearance at the Magazine Publishers of America banquet. First off, while I agree that Stewart should not be anyone’s monkey, as he explained to Tucker Carlson during his visit to the ill-fated Crossfire set, it’s also unwise to bite the hand that feeds you. One might argue that he was merely standing by his convictions and principles, but one might also then ponder why he took the MPA’s money in the first place.

That aside, I find his reported comments mildly amusing considering his audience as well as, well… honest and accurate. In truth, I’m a magazine junky (just ask my wife), but that’s only because of their portability and low-risk as bathroom reading. Most of my news comes from the web. If I had a nice portable, washable and water-resistant handhelp computer, I’d probably eschew magazines altogether.

In the age of amateur blogs, 24-7 ubiquitous news and constant noise from an increasing number of sources, one must wonder whether the long format of the magazine, whose stories are frequently well past stale by the time they’ve reached newsstands, is truly relevant. There will always be a demand for more in-depth looks at news and events. But does that demand adequately justify the costs associated with publishing a magazine?

The racks at the grocery and book stores are getting larger, not smaller, but I wonder whether that’s due more to people with money throwing it at a traditional solution without considering more modern alternatives or whether that really is due to the magazine format’s popularity. In other words, are people demaning more magazines, or are we just so used to them that publishers simply don’t believe there’s any other way?

I’m asking questions for which I have no answers, so I apologize and ask that you bear with me. However, there may be some indication of an answer in the final few paragraphs of the linked story:

“In truth, it was just another attempt for the magazine industry to try to appear edgy and hip and with-it for its advertisers. Exactly what America’s most successful magazines never are, and what their readers don’t want them to be.”

I find it intertesting that the author laughs along with Stewart and, while implying that he may have been a bit out of line, mostly agrees with his assertions regarding the relevancy of the magazine. And in what journal did this article appear? The National Review – a conservative-leaning magazine. Don’t miss the tag at the bottom urging you to subscribe.

I’m really starting to get into this whole idea of lenses. I like the theory behind it – that, like a blog, you’ll turn to the folks you trust and whom you enjoy hearing from for information about the topics on which you consider them an expert. This whole idea smacks of the “web of trust” concept that rose to popularity in the dotcom era by sites like Epinions and systems like Netflix’s recommendation program. Lenses – and, again, I’m speculating based on what I’ve read as this has not been put into practice in a public way yet – make this more persona, less automated and rely on individuals who passionately care about the topics they are purported experts on, as timeliness of links and relevance are what will matter most.

Over at BuzzMachine, several folks have asked in the comments about what happens when there are several lenses built around the same topic. For instance, there will no doubt be dozens of viral marketing lenses, many of them containing links redundant within one another. How will the best ones rise to the top, so to speak.

My guess – there really will be no “top”. As I said, the folks who update their lenses frequently with links highly relevant to their topic of interest will more than likely attract the most viewers. If you have a dozen such people all focusing on the same topic (not likely, but possible) the folks interested in those topics will no doubt pick and choose the ones they like best and read them all. Some may even go a bit meta and do a lens of lenses, listing the lenses of those they trust most. This form of self-organization will probably keep happening in a myriad of different ways, each leading someone closer to their area of focus. This, of course, shatters the list of topic writers at the “top” into smaller groups. So, while you may like one person’s links, I may choose another. The two camps won’t necessarily compete, but each side will be appropriately served by whom they consider more expert or relevant.

Of course, you’ll also have the folks who read both. There’s nothing saying that you must choose one lens per topic. In the blog world, I read both Engadget and Gizmodo. Both sites cover gear news – everything from the latest cellphones and entertainment gadgetry to weird stuff coming out of Japan. I’ve witnessed several mini-flamewars regarding which site is better. The truth is, though, if you showed me five posts from Engadget and five posts from Gizmodo, I wouldn;t be able to tell you which one came from which. They have a similar voice and cover similar topics. Frequently, though, one either scoops the other or one chooses to cover something the other deems unworthy. By reading both, I benefit from one catching things the other dropped. More importantly, I get two different points of view on the same topic. One site may rave about a new cellphone’s features, the other may point out all of its flaws. Regardless, I win by getting both sides and, therefore, becoming a bit more educated about the topic at hand.

So what if there are a dozen lenses on Online Marketing? One lens may be heavy on the e-mail side of things, another on the RSS side. Yet another may be absolutely fascinated by the opportunities provided by Google’s Adsense. If I read them all, I get a fuller picture of the topic. As with the blogs in my RSS feed, I may read the lens at first, get an idea of their viewpoint and, ocassionally, go through and weed out the weak ones. In my RSS feed, I’ve already weeded out several sites that others have absolutely raved about and continue to enjoy that I just don’t find useful. That’s my opinion, and the beauty of the personalized web is, if I don;t find it useful, entertaining or enjoyable, I don’t need to be a part of it.

I think this is a fundamental concept in what everyone is calling Web 2.0: You don’t have to have the “world’s best blog” or the “world’s best lens” or even the “world’s best company”. There is a ton of choice out there now, and the only way to stand out is to be the best at what you for the audience you want to serve. You don’t have to be an Amazon to be successful, you just have to target your audience and do your best to serve them. Do that and they’ll do much of the marketing for you by telling their friends, mentioning you on their blog and, eventually, building a lens around you. Be remarkable, do something worth talking about and people will talk. Your customers will be the filter that attracts more customers.

That, my friends, is my interpretatin of what Seth Godin is calling “a lens”. Essentially, a trusted source of quick bits of information intended to help you get on you way quick on some topic and make it easier to connect people, the folks they trust and the ideas they’re interested in.

I’m riding this wave lately beliving in something that I’ve seen slowly come to pass ever since I first got into the online gig. I long believed that, to be a business owner, you needed some special talent, some indescribable thing or essence unique to a select few. To run a business you needed stationary, an office, a receptionsit, file drawers, investors, executive, on and on and on. When the Internet first went commercial, futurists of all kinds were crying out that it changed the rules for everything. So folks rushed into starting businesses online by getting stationary, renting office space, hiring a receptionist… you know the drill.

Some of the companies succeeded. Google, Yahoo, Amazon and many others are still around. For every one still around, though, dozens are left rotting in the dust. They hired too many, revelled in having too much money, grew too quickly and interpreted this changing of the rules of business as meaning that profits don’t matter as much as an idea.

If a business’ whole point of existence is to generate profits, however, (and is that not the definition of a business?) then profits will always matter as long as you run a business.

But ideas matter too. They can, in fact, lead to profits, if fostered and allowed to grow. Some ideas are brilliant and stand to make their owners millions. Some are so-so and will never perform to expectations. Some are just ahead of their time.

What the Internet changed was not the basic rules of how to run a business. The Internet merely made it so that all of those ideas – the good, the weak and the too-early – can be tried on the market quicker and cheaper. A guy sitting in his home with a great idea can spend his evenings churning them out, turning them into realities for so little money that it doesn’t make sense not to try them out. Focus is still key, but if one idea falters and seem unrecoverable, you simply need to go back to the drawing board and come up with another one. Like Mark Cuban says: you only need to be right once.

If you can read this right now, you have everything you need at your fingertips to turn your ideas into potentially profitable realities. You don’t need to find investors or raise capital – bootstrap it! Plan and think and plot, but don;t get so caught up in your idea that you don’t begin to experiment. Go get yourself a web host ($9.95/mo at Hurricane Electric) teach yourself some HTML (The Web Monkey remains my favorite source for beginners) or install a complete web site in a box for free using something like Joomla. For graphics and web design, turn to free open source projects like The Gimp for image editing or NVU for WYSIWYG web editing. Take advantage of free tools like PayPal, Blogger and Google’s AdSense to spread the word and bring in some cash flow.

If you’re still unsure and need some personalized guidance, contact me right now. I’ll help set you up and get your ideas flowing and going. The New New Economy awaits. It’s time for you to take advantage.

And, lest you think I’m not heeding my own advice, Wine Spotter is now actively seeking Pioneer members. Get in on the ground floor.

What is the “New New Economy”?

Putting it simply, the “New Economy” was what was promised back in the dotcom days when it was believed that the Internet changed everything about business.

The New New economy is about the realities after the fallout – business basics have remained the same, the barriers to entry have become almost negligible and opportunities have multiplied exponentially. There’s still gold in that thar ‘net – lots of gold – you just need the right tools

Mark Cuban: You Only Have to Be Right Once.
Rob Z’s Take on “being right once”, tied in with the “New New Economy”.
Seth Godin: Being Small
The Art of the Start by Guy Kawasaki. Basic thesis: Get Started Now!

What is Web 2.0?

When you’re in technology, it’s easy to get caught up in all the whiz-bang niftiness you can do. You start hearing the buzzwords – AJAX! DHTML! Web 2.0! – and you get all warm and fuzzy, feeling like you’re on the edge. Let’s make one thing perfectly clear: In the New New Economy, technology is meaningless -

The New New Economy is all about the people

How you connect them, how you serve them, how you help them make more money and make better sense of everything. Whether you’re selling physical widgets or your expertise, keep this in mind: You are now a service provider. The web is just a channel for your service.

Tim O’Reilly lays out the schematic for Web 2.0
Seth Godin: All Marketers Are Liars – What’s YOUR story?
Seth Godin: You can’t control the conversation, so at least get in the middle
Tom Peters’ Master Slides – The PSF (Professional Service Firm) is everything!

How do you get into the middle of the conversation?

The Internet promised to democratize publication. When the blogging revolution came about, this finally happened. Now anyone, anywhere can start a blog and immediately begin writing about anything they want. What they say can help you find your next brilliant idea. What they say about you can make or break you. You can’t control any of this, but you can participate.

Seth Godin: Who’s There?
Rob Z’s Guide to Business Blogging
Blogger, owned by Google. It’s free, it’s quick and now there’s no excuse for you begin blogging within five minutes.

How do I get started panning for gold in the New New Economy?

The New New Economy is an economy of ideas, and no idea is worthless. The old adage of how to find a business to start – fill a need – has never been more true. The Internet, open source software (free to use, free to copy, free to change) and the incredible shrinking cost of bandwidth have made it possible to take an idea from napkin to shingle in nothing flat. There’s nothing keeping you from trying out every new idea that comes your way. Remember what Mark Cuban says: you only need to be right once. So go out there and fail as many times as you need to before you make it big.

PayPal can help you collect money online within minutes
Need something more robust? Try Authorize.net.
Joomla can help you build a complete web site without touching a piece of code.
Of course, you’ll need to learn some HTML and Stylesheets. The Web Monkey can help.
Need a good web host? Hurricane Electric will thrill you.

If you need someone to guide you through all this, Rob Z and TechKnowMe are your #1 resource